Theoretical basis for expert system to forecast and assess economic impact of anthropogenic pollution on population disease level

Authors:
M.I. Bublyk
Pages:
206 - 221
Language:
English
Cite as:


Annotation

The aim of the article. Theoretical basis of mathematical apparatus of fuzzy sets to evaluate and account the man-made (anthropogenic) losses is improved in the article in order to take effective administrative decisions of their reduction and prevention. Theoretical basis for building an expert system for forecasting the economic effects of man-made (anthropogenic) pollution on population levels of disease is analyzed. Practically these investigations will give the opportunity to control measures of orientation of the national economy and its individual industries on sustainable development.

The results of the analysis. The theoretical foundations and applied problems of predicting man-made damage to the national economy and methods of management at the state level allowed for the following conclusions.

1. To justify the application of theoretical principles of fuzzy sets as an effective mathematical tool in conditions of incomplete information and uncertainty in future work the advantages of fuzzy expert systems, including the possibility of approximate descriptions such complex phenomena that can not be described in conventional quantitative terms, and the ability to receive, store and adjust the knowledge possessed by experts in this subject area in the process of dialogue with them in order to get real results.

2. The model of fuzzy expert system for establishing interdependencies between the amount of pollution (emissions, effluents, waste) and deterioration of health in Ukraine has been proposed.

3. The model in predicting the technogenic load (discharges (drained polluted waters without treatment) and emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitric oxide) due to economic activity and its effects on the number of newly registered tumors in 1000 people of the population in Ukraine has been investigated.

4. During the investigation it was established as a rising idea to use the claim that the impact of emissions and discharges of pollutants to the number of cases is cumulative in nature and appears to the time delay, because the relationship between the results must include the time lag and indicators should be averaged over volumes actions for a specified period of time.

Conclusions and directions of futher researches. Thus, the application of fuzzy sets for forecasting the national economy anthropogenic damage, manifested in the calculation of anthropogenic pollution (emissions, effluents, waste) and study their impact on public health may have practical use in the development in the management of the national economy according methodological model of research, evaluation and regulation of man-made damage to the national economy. The results obtained will improve the efficiency of state regulation of the phenomenon, provide appropriate allocations for their eradication and compensation.

Theoretical and practical aspects regarding the economic evaluation of man-made damage will be used in further research on developing an appropriate fuzzy expert system for predicting the study, collecting and analyzing data on the damage, loss and expense in different sectors of the national economy by sector and identifying technological losses (of man-made damage). The application of the proposed model will form not only an effective system of national economy, but also protection against predictable risks of technogenic emergency situations that may occur in a variety of sectors.


Keywords
environmental management, expert systems, evaluation of man-made (anthropogenic) losses, sustainable development, national economy, fuzzy sets, consideration of uncertainties


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